Preview: UFC 317 ‘Topuria vs. Oliveira’

Lightweights

Renato “Money” Moicano (20-6-1, 12-6 UFC) vs. Beneil Dariush (22-6-1, 16-6-1 UFC)

BETTING ODDS: Carneiro (-122), Dariush (+102)

A victim of the late-notice shuffle at UFC 311 in January, it’s nice to see the UFC re-book a well-matched affair. An Arman Tsarukyan injury meant that Moicano wound up getting a last-minute title shot against Islam Makhachev, and while that didn’t go particularly well for the Brazilian, he has still had an impressive career renaissance. Moicano was rightfully a highly touted featherweight prospect ahead of his UFC debut in 2014, but he struggled with injuries until an unexpected breakout victory over Jeremy Stephens in 2017 launched him into the rankings. From there, Moicano settled in seemingly just outside of the title picture. He could hold his own as a striker and find plenty of success on the back of his grappling, but the harder hitters at 145 pounds typically found a way to get him to crumble. That made it a bit of a surprise when he decided to move up to lightweight, particularly after he got knocked out by Rafael Fiziev early in his 155-pound run.

There wasn’t much to suggest that Moicano would fare much better against harder hitters, even factoring in any newfound speed advantages. However, since the loss to Fiziev, Moicano has suddenly been able to come back from the brink multiple times, often bending but never breaking. Before the Makhachev loss, Moicano had won six of seven, absorbing a hellacious beating but still surviving in that lone loss against Rafael dos Anjos. Add in that this run has come with Moicano discovering his personality, for better or for worse, and it makes sense that he was the choice when Makhachev suddenly needed an opponent. Now, Dariush gets the chance to prove that he’s the better fighter.



Dariush has had a similar run in many aspects, coming to the UFC in 2014 as a fighter seemingly ready to compete but then running into some durability issues. An ace grappler with a rapidly developing pressure striking game, Dariush figured to have the tools to take any lightweight apart but had a knack for getting finished at the worst possible times—even before a three-fight winless stretch from 2017 to 2018 that threatened his UFC career. Dariush initially halted his skid by refocusing on his wrestling and grappling for much safer performances, but a 2020 win over Drakkar Klose marked him as suddenly becoming one of the most violent lightweights on the roster, as multiple performances saw him nearly get knocked out before charging forward like a madman to score a finish of his own. Dariush entered 2023 on an eight-fight winning streak with the hopes that he could vault into contender status, but that instead wound up marking Dariush’s ceiling.

Against Charles Oliveira and the aforementioned Tsarukyan, Dariush simply wound up getting finished before he had the ability to make another comeback. Dariush has now had 18 months to recover from the Tsarukyan loss, and it’s unclear if he can get off the schneid here. There’s a lot in Dariush’s favor on paper. Moicano has rediscovered a lot of his success through his wrestling and grappling, which figures to be something Dariush can neutralize; and Dariush has the type of dedicated pressure game that has historically given Moicano some difficulties. However, if this is going to wind up as a war of attrition, Moicano might lose some battles only to win the war, as he’s capable of unleashing some big moments and Dariush is the only of the two who has been getting knocked out in recent years. The call is that Dariush can ride some wrestling advantages to a balanced victory, though this is essentially a coinflip. The pick is Dariush via decision.

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The Prelims