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Preview: UFC on ABC 9 ‘Whittaker vs. de Ridder’

Almabayev vs. Ochoa

Men’s Flyweights

Asu Almabayev (21-3, 4-1 UFC) vs. Jose Ochoa (8-1, 1 NC; 1-1 UFC)

Odds: Almabayev (-110); Ochoa (-110)

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Faced with the challenge of coming up with a short-notice flyweight matchup in Abu Dhabi, the UFC knocked this one out of the park. Ramazonbek Temirov withdrew just two weeks ago after a positive PED test, leaving Almabayev without a dance partner. In steps Ochoa, a young and inexperienced but very promising up-and-comer.

Almabayev came to the UFC with a long win streak in reputable shows, and continued that success after joining the promotion. Somewhat undersized for the division but aggressive and physically strong, he mixes a high-volume striking approach with wrestling that relied on persistence as much as technique. Once he gets his opponent to the ground, he looks to advance position. A reliable finisher in regional shows, he came out as more of a grinder and round-winner at the UFC level, but the wins kept coming.

Almabayev’s win streak made it to 17 before it was snapped in his last outing, as he was hammered by Manel Kape across two and a half rounds in the main event of UFC Vegas 103 in March. The finish—where referee Mike Beltran interpreted Almabayev’s retreat as surrender—may have been odd, but it does not change the basic dynamic of the fight. Kape proved too big, too fast and too powerful, shrugging off Almabayev’s best strikes and takedown attempts without much ill effect.

At age 24 and with only nine professional fights on his ledger, Peru’s Ochoa is a long way from approaching Kape’s résumé, but he brings some of the same basic tools. Ochoa is a tall flyweight with raw skills and the kind of athletic dynamism that one would hope to see in a future contender. Like Kape, Ochoa tends to wait for his opening, then explode with a strike or a flurry of strikes, and like Kape, if that perfect opening does not present itself, he can be lulled into inactivity. Ochoa has a decent sprawl, but also tends to defend takedowns with a front headlock.

That dynamic—Almabayev’s takedowns against Ochoa’s defensive wrestling—will probably define this fight. Almabayev is not the athlete Ochoa is, and even at his best, his wrestling is more dogged than overwhelming. Jumping guillotine attempts would provide Almabayev unnecessary help in that regard. For as long as they are on the feet, Almabayev’s forward pressure and steady output will be an interesting foil for Ochoa’s bursts of offense.

That this fight is hovering around even odds despite the late notice and experience gap is an indication of Ochoa’s promise as a prospect. If both men were entering the bout on full training camps, it would be easier to lean towards the younger Ochoa, but the pick here is for Almabayev to win two of three rounds with volume striking and a crucial takedown or two.



Jump To »
Whittaker vs. de Ridder
Yan vs. McGhee
Magomedov vs. Barriault
Almabayev vs. Ochoa
Krylov vs. Guskov
The Prelims

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